Understanding the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in South Asia

In thinking about how to support effective national HIV/AIDS responses in the countries of South Asia, an important starting place is a clear sense of the epidemic’s pattern and trends. Three diverging views anticipate very different future trends in the epidemic in South Asia. The “wildfire” view warns that unless a lot more is done, fast, a generalized epidemic will ignite throughout most of South Asia, dramatically increasing the number of people infected. It argues that the HIV/AIDS epidemic is comparable to Africa’s in size and potential and requires an immediate, all embracing response. At the other extreme, a complacent view expects the epidemic to remain limited in size and importance with modest increases in infections. The middle view sees many “bush fires”, with South Asia facing significant but distinctive concentrated epidemics, requiring urgent action to prevent a many-fold increase in the number of infected people.